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An updated  Adana Treaty could be the lifeline everyone needs

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The summit meeting to be held in Moscow shortly between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan may prove to be a pivotal event. It could open the door to the restoration of relations between Turkey and Syria and the revival of their 1998 Adana Treaty — perhaps followed by a signing ceremony bringing the Syrian and Turkish presidents together under the auspices of their Russian counterpart.

This is what the Russian have been carefully preparing for, in the hope of drawing a line under the war in Syria, removing all foreign forces from the country and reasserting the state’s sovereignty over all its territory and border crossings.

The country continues to serve as an inspiration for the rest of the Arab World

By Abdel Bari Atwan

Tunisia keeps on springing surprises, pleasant ones included. Its latest pleasant surprise was the landslide victory of retired constitutional law professor Kais Saied in the presidential election run-off. He won twice as many votes as his predecessor the late Baji Caid Essebsi, and more than the total number cast by voters who took part in the country’s parliamentary polls.

Essebsi is reckoned to have won the presidency largely on the strength of the women’s vote – 1.2 million out of 1.7 female voters backed him.  

The US pull-out from northern Syria is a poisoned chalice for Turkey

By Abdel Bari Atwan

US President Donald Trump is often derided as a fool and his foreign policy as a failure, especially in the Middle East.  This description is unquestionably apt. But his surprise decision to pull the US’ 2,000-strong military force out of northern Syria, after deeming its mission ‘futile’, and to abandon his Kurdish allies there, is a smart act of strategic reappraisal. It is an admission of defeat and an attempt to cut Washington’s losses after it spent tens of billions of dollars engaging in the war in Syria.

The Iranians know they have the upper hand in dealing with the US

By Abdel Bari Atwan

Iranian President Hasan Rohani dealt a slap to the face of his US counterpart Donald Trump when he refused to take part in the phone call arranged between the two men by France’s Emmanuel Macron. It was supposed to take place amid much publicity on the side-lines of the annual session of the UN General Assembly in New York, which all three leaders were attending. Macron had his people set up a special secure phone line for the purpose.

Saudi crown prince is suddenly keen on peace in Yemen and dialogue with Iran

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The interview with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin-Salman aired by the American CBS channel on Sunday was noteworthy in three respects.

First, he spoke and behaved like Saudi Arabia’s absolute ruler. He barely mentioned his father King Salman and accepted responsibility for the murder of Jamal Kashoggi in his capacity as the country’s chief executive in charge of its three million state employees.

The Saudi crown prince’s latest bid to deny blame for the journalist’s murder won’t wash

By Abdel Bari Atwan

Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s partial admission of responsibility for the murder last year of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul seems at first to be big news and a bold step. But a closer reading of the text of his remarks, made in an interview with the American PBS channel for a documentary to be aired next week, reveals it to be no such thing.

Can renewed protests loosen the grip of the military establishment?

By Abdel Bari Atwan

I have been wary of writing about Egypt recently. Not because there is nothing to write about. Egypt is a pivotal country in the Arab world and a hive of ceaseless activity. The problem is the ‘if you’re not with us you’re against us’ attitude of both the regime and its opponents towards their critics. If you find fault with the regime you are branded as a Muslim Brotherhood apologist. And if you try to understand aspects of its behaviour – in terms of giving priority to economic development and trying to avoid the bloody fate that befell Syria and Libya – you are labelled as a counter-revolutionary, advocate of dictatorship and enemy of the Arab Spring.

The attack on the oil production centres was merely a rehearsal

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The despatch of hundreds of American troops to Saudi Arabia following the drone and missile strikes on its Abqaiq and Khreis oil production centres means it is less likely that the US will take military action in response to the attacks.

US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said the soldiers were being sent at the request of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to bolster their air and missile defence capabilities. This reinforced the message conveyed by President Donald Trump to Saudi leaders immediately after the attacks that shocked world energy markets: if you want to fight, we’ll back you; but we won’t guarantee your protection; and you must pay up-front for any support we provide.

Houthis affirm drones were home-made and launched from Yemen

By Abdel Bari Atwan

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to blame Iran for Saturday’s drone attacks on Saudi oil installations that knocked out half the kingdom’s petroleum production. He said there was ‘no evidence’ that the ten pilotless aircraft that targeted the Abqaiq and Khreis plants were launched from Yemen, and insisted that they in fact came from Iran – though he provided no evidence of his own to support that claim.

Who’s going to buy Saudi Aramco shares now?

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The huge fires started by Saturday’s drone attacks on the Abqaiq and Khreis oil production and processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia may have been brought under control. But big questions remain unanswered about where the ten pilotless aircraft came from and how they managed to reach their targets apparently undetected and hit them with such devastating accuracy.

These were no ordinary targets. They were among the most strategically important – and, one would have assumed, most closely protected — locations in the country.