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Who’s going to buy Saudi Aramco shares now?

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The huge fires started by Saturday’s drone attacks on the Abqaiq and Khreis oil production and processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia may have been brought under control. But big questions remain unanswered about where the ten pilotless aircraft came from and how they managed to reach their targets apparently undetected and hit them with such devastating accuracy.

These were no ordinary targets. They were among the most strategically important – and, one would have assumed, most closely protected — locations in the country.  

Is Trump’s sacking of his ultra-hawkish advisor cause for hope?

By Abdel Bari Atwan

John Bolton left his post as US National Security Advisor without fulfilling any of his dreams: to celebrate a change of regime in Tehran with the Iranian opposition as he promised it last year; to make Juan Guido president of Venezuela instead of Nicolas Maduro; to bomb the North Korean capital Pyongyang; to reduce Lebanon to rubble; and much else besides.

Many will have been distressed to hear Tuesday’s news that Bolton was sacked.

The US must concede it has lost its war in Afghanistan

By Abdel Bari Atwan

It is hard to believe US President Donald Trump’s account of his cancellation of a ‘secret summit’ that was set to be held at Camp David on Sunday with Taliban representatives and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to finalises an agreement that would lead to the withdrawal of America’s 14,000 troops before the presidential election.

Trump said he called off the summit because of a Taliban attack in Kabul that led to the death of 12 people including an American soldier.

Netanyahu may come to regret breaking the rules of engagement in Lebanon

By Abdel Bari Atwan

There can be no doubting that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will make good on his pledge to retaliate for the recent Israeli drone raid against South Beirut. The only question is how and when, and what the repercussions will be.

Israel’s leaders are well aware of this, and despite their outward bravado are bracing themselves for the impending retaliatory strike, placing their forces on maximum alert.

Trump loses another opening round in his war on Iran

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The release of the Iranian tanker Grace Ithat was detained last month by the Gibraltar authorities is a victory for Iran, and a vindication of the tough, resolute and shrewd way it has managed the crisis since it began. By the same token, it is a defeat for the US, which tried to prevent the move and get the vessel impounded but ended up being snubbed and ignored by its closest ally.

When US National Security Advisor John Bolton was in London this week, he met with the new prime minister, Boris Johnson, and pressed hard for the tanker’s release to be blocked to avoid embarrassing President Donald Trump and his administration.

Riyadh is losing the war, and rapidly running out of options

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The Wall Street Journalreported this week that the Saudi leadership is considering a radical rethink of its policy in Yemen. The paper, which has access to Crown Prince Muhammad Bin-Salman’s circle, quoted a Saudi official as saying his government is mulling ‘proposals’ to start direct negotiations with the Houthi Ansarallah movement as it does not want to be dragged into a costly long-term war in Yemen.

The last thing Saudi Arabia and its partners need is Israeli ‘protection’

By Abdel Bari Atwan

The inclusion of Israel in the regional alliance being formed by the US to supposedly protect shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz signals a great leap forward in the creeping process of normalisation between Israel and most of the Arab Gulf states.

Israel is not a littoral state of the Gulf and does no maritime trade there. Nor is it a big naval power which can add any meaningful capacity to the hundreds of US, British and allied warships and support vessels that crowd the waterway.

Is the UAE also getting cold feet about a showdown with Iran?

By Abdel Bari Atwan

There’s no end of surprises from the UAE these days. First, there was the series of reports indicating Abu Dhabi would withdraw or at least redeploy or reduce the number of, its troops in Yemen. Then on Wednesday, we learned a high-level Emirati security delegation was visiting Tehran, amid other signs the UAE was trying to woo the country that, until very recently, it was demonised as the arch-enemy and cause of all the region’s troubles.

The Saudis may be having second thoughts about a showdown with Iran

By Abdel Bari Atwan

As tensions mount in the Gulf and talk grows of an imminent (and possibly accidental) military showdown, a flirtation of sorts has been taking place between two of the principal antagonists: Iran and Saudi Arabia. It may be a mistake to read too much into their seeming change of behaviour, but it could be a pointer to how the crisis may unfold in future.

This apparent rapprochement was reflected in two recent developments.

Arab regime efforts to court Israel face a growing public backlash

By Abdel Bari Atwan

Images of a Saudi ‘activist’ who visited the occupied Palestinian territories at the invitation of the Israeli foreign ministry, as part of a six-member delegation of Arab ‘journalists’, have gone viral on Arab social media. He was shown being taken on a walking tour of the Old City of Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa mosque compound by his Israeli minders. Wherever he went, he was cursed and insulted by local Palestinians, shoes and plastic chairs were thrown at him, and young children ran up to him and spat in his face.